How It Works
Select Location
Choose the country (Iraq, Lebanon, or Egypt) and specific governorate where the protest will occur.
Define Characteristics
Specify the location type, demand type, and primary tactic used by protesters.
Estimate Participants
Enter the expected number of participants. Larger protests may have different outcome patterns.
Get Predictions
Click 'Predict Outcomes' to receive a repression level prediction (0–5) with a full probability distribution.
Repression Level Scale
Level 0 — None
No known coercion or security presence at the event.
Level 1 — Presence
Security forces or repressive groups present at the event.
Level 2 — Escalated
Army deployed or participants summoned to a security facility.
Level 3 — Force Used
Physical harassment, arrests, detentions, or militia involvement.
Level 4 — Injuries
Injuries inflicted on protesters by security forces.
Level 5 — Lethal
Deaths inflicted. Highest severity repression.
Important Considerations
- Research Tool: This system is designed for research and risk assessment. It should not be the sole basis for safety decisions.
- Historical Data: Predictions are based on events from 2017-2022 and may not reflect current political conditions.
- Regional Scope: Only protests in Iraq, Lebanon, and Egypt are supported. Other regions require additional data.
- Probabilistic: The output is a predicted severity level with a probability distribution. The actual level may differ.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate are the predictions?
The ensemble model achieves high accuracy on historical data for the repression level scale (0–5). However, predictions are based on patterns from 2017-2022 and may not account for recent changes in political dynamics.
What data was used to train the model?
The model was trained on over 13,000 protest events from Iraq, Lebanon, and Egypt, documented between 2017 and 2022. Data includes protest characteristics and documented security responses.
Can I use this for other countries?
Currently, the model only supports Iraq, Lebanon, and Egypt. Predictions for other regions would require additional training data and model validation.
How should I interpret the probabilities?
The model returns a predicted repression level (0–5) and a probability for each level. The highlighted level has the highest probability based on similar historical events, but other levels are possible.
Is this data updated in real-time?
No, the model is trained on historical data. It does not incorporate real-time information about ongoing events or recent political developments.